Thursday 17 April 2014

End of Season Award Predictions

With the end of the season coming up, I thought I would make some predictions as to who is going to win the end of season awards.

Most Valuable Player
1st - Kevin Durant (Thunder)
2nd - LeBron James (Heat)
3rd - Joakim Noah (Bulls)

Honourable Mentions : Blake Griffin (Clippers), Kevin Love (Timberwolves), Paul George (Pacers)

The pundits billed the Race to the MVP as a fight between LeBron James and Kevin Durant, and what a contest it's been. But, at the end of a long, hard season, the Servant has surpassed the King. Durant has had career highs in pretty every stat, as well as breaking Michael Jordan's streak of 25+ point games. He also led his team through some tough times, when they were without their starting point guard, Russell Westbrook. LeBron hasn't exactly had a bad season, but for a long period of the season, it has looked like he has been coasting. Joakim Noah comes a distant 3rd, despite having a fantastic season for the Bulls in which he has recorded 4 triple doubles, and 43 double doubles. He has been a natural leader for a team that has had to play without Derrick Rose and Luol Deng.

Blake Griffin was a contender for the final spot as he has been a star all season, especially during Chris Paul's absence. Joakim Noah clinched 3rd because he has been a little bit more consistent. Kevin Love also had a chance as an individual, but has been let down by the Timberwolves' appalling record. Paul George has been the main reason for the Pacers' success this year, impressing on both ends of the floor.

Kevin Durant and LeBron James battled to the end, and the Servant ended up on top.


Most Improved Player
1st - Goran Dragic (Suns)
2nd - Anthony Davis (Pelicans)
3rd - Lance Stephenson (Pacers)

Honourable Mentions : Blake Griffin (Clippers), Gerald Green (Suns), Kyle Lowry (Raptors)

I easily could have given this award to entire Suns roster, with the fantastic job that Jeff Hornacek has done. However, I think that Goran Dragic has been the prime example of this improvement. He has led his team to a fantastic season, which could end up in them winning a playoff berth. Not bad considering they were written off as the worst team in the West at the beginning of the season. Anthony Davis has also become the natural leader of a poor Pelicans team. He is sublime on both ends of the court, and has shown why he was the number 1 draft pick last year. The Pacers are another team who have improved massively this year (well, at least in the first half of the season) and Lance Stephenson has been at the forefront of that. There were talks of a first All-Star appearance for him, but he was snubbed in favour of Joe Johnson. Nevertheless, he has had a very good season.

It may surprise you to see Blake Griffin in this list, but he has come on leaps and bounds since last year. He has always been seen as a great dunker, but this year he has added a jump shot to his game, as well as impressive handles, especially coming from a big man. Gerald Green is another man who is considered as one of the best dunkers in the league. In his first season with the Suns he has worked considerably on his shooting and defence, and it's clear to see the effect he has had on the team. Kyle Lowry is a very underrated point guard who is averaging 18 points per game and 7.5 assists. Compare this to last season where he averaged 11.6 and 6.4, it's clear to see Lowry's potential is sky high.

Goran Dragic has captured the essence of the Phoenix Suns' improvements.


Rookie of the Year
1st - Michael Carter-Williams (76ers)
2nd - Victor Oladipo (Magic)
3rd - Trey Burke (Jazz)

Honourable Mentions : Tim Hardaway Jr (Knicks), Cody Zeller (Bobcats), Mason Plumlee (Nets)

Considering he was the 11th player drafted (and the 6th guard) and is playing for the team with the second worst record in the NBA, nobody could predict the season that Michael Carter Williams was gonna have. Averaging 16.7 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists is a stat line that compares to Magic Johnson's rookie season, and Michael's done it with a worse side. I genuinely believe that this kid can go far. Another rookie with tonnes of potential is Victor Oladipo. He's been the only man who has challenged Carter-Williams for the Rookie of the Year award. His 16-4-4 stat line is a bit worse than MCW's, but he is still sure to rival him all the way through their careers. Trey Burke slides into 3rd place, despite missing the beginning of the season. He looks like he could start a bright, young Jazz side, along with Gordon Hayward.

In all honesty, the draft class this year hasn't been very good. High picks like Anthony Bennett, Otto Potter Jr. and Kelly Olynyk have failed to impress, which is why you have to go down the draft order to find honourable mentions. Tim Hardaway Jr. was drafted 24th by the Knicks, but looks like rather good value. He could be a key piece in the bid to keep Carmelo Anthony in New York. Mason Plumlee was the 22nd pick and has proved to be a valuable role player for the Nets, with his 7 points per game, and 4 rebounds. Cody Zeller hasn't exactly had a jaw-dropping season, but he's the best of a bad bunch. Being in a playoff team in his season will give him a lot of experience for his future career. 

Michael Carter-Williams has been a class act this year, but the draft class overall disappointed.


Coach of the Year
1st - Gregg Popovich (Spurs)
2nd - Tom Thibodeau (Bulls)
3rd - Jeff Hornacek (Suns)

Honourable Mentions : Dwane Casey (Raptors), Steve Clifford (Bobcats), Terry Stotts (Trailblazers)

At the beginning of the season, the Spurs were ruled out of contending for the championship for being too old (again), and then during the season, everyone said they would get tired near the end (again), and now they have the best record in the NBA (again). Of course, players like Tony Parker and Tim Duncan play a key part in this consistency, but a lot of credit has to go to Gregg Popovich. His coaching style is not liked by the NBA board, but resting his top stars is sometimes needed, especially when his roster isn't exactly getting any younger. He also sets up the Spurs based on how they can beat their opponents. This allows them to have a number of plans, and they can flow dynamically between them. Tom Thibodeau is another coach who has done wonders with a depleted roster. He has had to deal with the absence of Derrick Rose and Luol Deng, and instead had to rely on less known players, such as D.J. Augustin, and those with little experience, Tony Snell. He has based the Bulls on defence, and it has worked brilliantly, gaining them a top 4 playoff seed (which also means home court advantage). Jeff Hornacek obviously didn't get the memo about the Suns supposedly being the worst team in the West, as he has (potentially) lead them to a playoff spot. As well as that, he has improved players such as Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Gerald Green massively, and encouraged a brilliant team spirit.

The Raptors have had their best season ever, and part of this is down to Dwane Casey. He was in charge of the Raptors last year when they finished bottom in the Atlantic division, with a .382 record. But this year, they are a completely different team, clinching their division, and getting a home court playoff place as well. In his debut season as a NBA head coach, Steve Clifford has turned around the Charlotte Bobcats from the league's fall guys to genuine playoff contenders. He has most of his players' playing their best season to date, including Al Jefferson who has phenomenal campaign this year. Terry Stotts also deserves respect for taking a Trailblazers team to the playoffs so comfortably, when people reckoned they may scrape through.

Old time coaches Gregg Popovich and Tom Thibodeau were at the top of their game again this year


6th Man of the Year
1st - Jamal Crawford (Clippers)
2nd - Manu Ginobili (Spurs)
3rd - Markieff Morris (Suns)

Honourable Mentions : Taj Gibson (Bulls), Reggie Jackson (Thunder), Nick Young (Lakers)

This award is possibly the hardest one to give out, because it's hard to know what individual coaches want from a 6th man. Do they want someone who is happy to slip into that role, and doesn't challenge for a bigger place (like Ginobili) or someone who can make that step up and push the starters out of place if necessary (such as Crawford)?

No matter what people look for, it's undeniable that Jamal Crawford has had a very good season. Despite being 34, he is still averaging 30 minutes per game, a high number for a 6th man, particularly at his age. He has had to step into the Clippers' starting 5, when both J.J Redick and Chris Paul have been injured. He's also scoring a very respectable 18.5 points per game, which rivals some starters at other teams. A man playing a very different 6th man role is Manu Ginobili. He is only averaging 23 minutes, but he's making the most of them, scoring 12.4 points per game, and 4.3 assists. He can't play as many minutes due to his age but he is still making a massive impact on the Spurs side. Gibson has become a much more pivotal part of the Bulls, especially on the offensive end, where he's always a threat. 13 points per game and 7 rebounds is a good figure for anybody, especially when they're a 6th man. He could be moved up to a starting spot next season, if Carlos Boozer leaves in the post-season.

Both Markieff Morris and Reggie Jackson have had fantastic seasons, and in any other year, they would be battling for the 1st and 2nd spots. Morris could have easily made the running for Most Improved Player, but I decided to put him in this category to award his efforts off the bench. He hasn't had a mind-blowing career so far, but has dealt very well with the responsibilities that Jeff Hornacek has given him. Getting 14 points a game from 26 minutes is a very impressive stat, especially from Morris, who has struggled on the offensive side of his game in past seasons. Reggie Jackson had a brilliant spell as a starter at the beginning of the season, replacing the injured Russell Westbrook at point guard. Since Westbrook's return, Jackson has dropped down to 6th man, but is still impressing in his 3rd season as a pro. Whether you love him or hate him, Nick Young has been one of the better players for the Los Angeles Lakers in an awful season. There are still questions about his defence, but on offence, he is a very good pure scorer. 

The 6th Man of the Year award was closely contested this year, with several great candidates.



Defensive Player of the Year
1st - Joakim Noah (Bulls)
2nd - Serge Ibaka (Thunder)
3rd - Anthony Davis (Pelicans)

Honourable Mentions : Andre Drummond (Pistons), Dwight Howard (Rockets), Roy Hibbert (Pacers)

This was another tough award to decide as there are so many great candidates, from all over the league. I think I have picked the top six players here (all centers incidentally) who have provided on an individual basis, and helped their team as a whole.

Joakim Noah is the favourite to take this award officially, and it's easy to see why. The Chicago Bulls are often seen as the best defensive team in the league, and Noah is seen as the epitome of that solid defence set up by Tom Thibodeau. 7.7 defensive rebounds and 1.5 blocks show that skill and leadership he was naturally blessed with. He could be described as the most part of the Bulls' playoffs bid. It may surprise you to see Serge Ibaka so far up this list, but let me talk you through my decision to give him second. I will admit, for a 6'10" power forward, to only average 6 defensive boards a game isn't award worthy. However, averaging 2.7 blocks per game (which puts him 2nd on the list this season) and the fact that the Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the league, with their opponents field goal percentage being the 3rd lowest in the league. This balance of individual prowess and team defence puts Ibaka in a firm second place. Anthony Davis is in a bit of a different situation to the aforementioned players. The 21 year old power forward is having a sublime season, recording a very impressive 7 defensive rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game. However, the Pelicans are having a bad season on the defensive end (and on every other end as well really). If this award was awarded purely on individual effort, then he would run away with it.

Another young man in a similar position to Davis is Andre Drummond. He's posting a very good 7.8 defensive rebounds per game (which puts him 7th on the NBA list this year), but the Pistons are having an absolutely shocking season. They are one of the worst teams in the league, with their points conceded total being the 3rd worst in the league, with only Philly and the Lakers below them. Dwight Howard has had a quietly good debut season out in Houston. He is usually in the running for this award (having a 12'6" vertical reach probably helps with that quite a bit) and has only slipped away from contention this year due to Houston not being fantastic defensively as a whole. Roy Hibbert was an early frontrunner in this category but his charge has slowed dramatically as recently, he has been putting up some awful numbers. In April, he has been averaging 3.2 rebounds, meaning he has been out rebounded by his much shorter team mates such as Lance Stephenson and Paul George. Not good for a center who stands at 7'2".

Joakim Noah hasn't stood out massively individually, but his team's success has lead to him being awarded.
 

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