Saturday 19 April 2014

First Round Surprise?

So, that's it. The regular season is done, and now we move onto play-offs. There are plenty of great match-ups this year, and there are so many contenders for the title.

But first the contenders have to get through their first-round matches against the lower-seeded teams left in the competition. Looking at these fixtures, there are plenty of potential banana-skins for the top teams.



Indiana Pacers (1) v Atlanta Hawks (8)





Indiana have been awful lately, only holding to the top seed through their good start to the season, and Miami's reluctance to take it off them. Atlanta on the other hand have been in fairly good form, winning 7 of their past 10 games, including a win at Indiana, where they beat them by 19 points.

In my eyes, there are two key factors to this contest. The first is whether big stars like Paul George and Lance Stephenson will turn up. Stephenson has been a bit quieter recently, and he can't do that in the post-season. George should perform well, but could struggle to bear the load on his own.

The other factor lies with the big men. Pau Millsap has had a very good season, and has been the base on which the Hawks have built their success. Roy Hibbert has also had a decent season, but has been utterly appalling recently. If this continues in the play-offs, Indy could struggle, especially with the news that Andrew Bynum is to miss the first round.

Verdict: Indy won't be counting their chickens before they've hatched, but they should hold Atlanta off. Indy in 5.

Toronto Raptors (3) v Brooklyn Nets (6)




The Raptors made their first post-season since 2008 this year, in a very impressive 3rd seed. Their reward? Playing a vastly improved Brooklyn side. Life doesn't seem fair, eh?

Since January 1st, the Nets have looked a completely different team. They have gone 35-17 (a percentage of .673). This record would have put them 2nd in the East. However, a terrible start to the year means they're languishing down in 6th place.

Toronto have had a fantastic season (their best to date based on their record) and deserve the 3rd spot. However, they do lack a bit of play-off experience, with big stars like DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry never having played in the post-season. Brooklyn have no such problem with seasoned players like Deron Williams, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

Verdict: Brooklyn could surprise people here. It depends on how Toronto's stars perform on the big play-off stage. Brooklyn in 6.


Oklahoma City Thunder (2) v Memphis Grizzlies (7)



Memphis only just made the play-offs this year after a thrilling 3 way battle, with the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks. OKC have been comfortably in contention all season, as expected.

To get the 7th berth, the Grizzlies went on a fantastic 6-2 run in April (whilst being undefeated at home), which earned Dave Joerger the honour of being named the Western Conference Coach of the Month. The Thunder have been struggling recently, losing 4 of their 8 games, including what should have been a gimme win against the Pelicans.

However, this lack of form could just be the Thunder coasting. Having Russell Westbrook and the scoring champ in the form of Kevin Durant is a big aid in their play-off bid.

Verdict: The Thunder's poor form can be put down to them resting their big stars. Expect them to cruise. Thunder in 5.


Los Angeles Clippers (3) v Golden State Warriors (6)






The Clippers and the Warriors are two brilliant teams to watch, and this play-off series is unlikely to disappoint. The season series is tied at 2-2, so it's guaranteed to be a close one.

The battle to watch will be between the star point guards, Chris Paul and Stephen Curry. Both have had fantastic seasons this year, and have been the natural leaders of their respective teams. Paul has the benefit of experience over Curry, but it is hard to defend Curry, a man averaging 42% from beyond the arc. This could be the key to who wins the series.

Another battle would have been between the big men of each side. However, Warriors' starting centre Andrew Bogut has been injured and likely to miss the playoffs. Jermaine O'Neal is a good replacement, but could struggle against younger, more athetlic stars like Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.

Verdict: This could be the best first-round match-up to watch. The Clippers should get the job done, but the Warriors could spring a surprise if shooters like Curry and Thompson step up. Clippers in 6.

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