First Round Surprise?

So, that's it. The regular season is done, and now we move onto play-offs. There are plenty of great match-ups this year, and there are so many contenders for the title.

But first the contenders have to get through their first-round matches against the lower-seeded teams left in the competition. Looking at these fixtures, there are plenty of potential banana-skins for the top teams.



Indiana Pacers (1) v Atlanta Hawks (8)

Indiana have been awful lately, only holding to the top seed through their good start to the season, and Miami's reluctance to take it off them. Atlanta on the other hand have been in fairly good form, winning 7 of their past 10 games, including a win at Indiana, where they beat them by 19 points.

In my eyes, there are two key factors to this contest. The first is whether big stars like Paul George and Lance Stephenson will turn up. Stephenson has been a bit quieter recently, and he can't do that in the post-season. George should perform well, but could struggle to bear the load on his own.

The other factor lies with the big men. Pau Millsap has had a very good season, and has been the base on which the Hawks have built their success. Roy Hibbert has also had a decent season, but has been utterly appalling recently. If this continues in the play-offs, Indy could struggle, especially with the news that Andrew Bynum is to miss the first round.

Verdict: Indy won't be counting their chickens before they've hatched, but they should hold Atlanta off. Indy in 5.

Toronto Raptors (3) v Brooklyn Nets (6)

The Raptors made their first post-season since 2008 this year, in a very impressive 3rd seed. Their reward? Playing a vastly improved Brooklyn side. Life doesn't seem fair, eh?

Since January 1st, the Nets have looked a completely different team. They have gone 35-17 (a percentage of .673). This record would have put them 2nd in the East. However, a terrible start to the year means they're languishing down in 6th place.

Toronto have had a fantastic season (their best to date based on their record) and deserve the 3rd spot. However, they do lack a bit of play-off experience, with big stars like DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry never having played in the post-season. Brooklyn have no such problem with seasoned players like Deron Williams, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

Verdict: Brooklyn could surprise people here. It depends on how Toronto's stars perform on the big play-off stage. Brooklyn in 6.


Oklahoma City Thunder (2) v Memphis Grizzlies (7)

Memphis only just made the play-offs this year after a thrilling 3 way battle, with the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks. OKC have been comfortably in contention all season, as expected.

To get the 7th berth, the Grizzlies went on a fantastic 6-2 run in April (whilst being undefeated at home), which earned Dave Joerger the honour of being named the Western Conference Coach of the Month. The Thunder have been struggling recently, losing 4 of their 8 games, including what should have been a gimme win against the Pelicans.

However, this lack of form could just be the Thunder coasting. Having Russell Westbrook and the scoring champ in the form of Kevin Durant is a big aid in their play-off bid.

Verdict: The Thunder's poor form can be put down to them resting their big stars. Expect them to cruise. Thunder in 5.


Los Angeles Clippers (3) v Golden State Warriors (6)

The Clippers and the Warriors are two brilliant teams to watch, and this play-off series is unlikely to disappoint. The season series is tied at 2-2, so it's guaranteed to be a close one.

The battle to watch will be between the star point guards, Chris Paul and Stephen Curry. Both have had fantastic seasons this year, and have been the natural leaders of their respective teams. Paul has the benefit of experience over Curry, but it is hard to defend Curry, a man averaging 42% from beyond the arc. This could be the key to who wins the series.

Another battle would have been between the big men of each side. However, Warriors' starting centre Andrew Bogut has been injured and likely to miss the playoffs. Jermaine O'Neal is a good replacement, but could struggle against younger, more athetlic stars like Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.

Verdict: This could be the best first-round match-up to watch. The Clippers should get the job done, but the Warriors could spring a surprise if shooters like Curry and Thompson step up. Clippers in 6.

Wild Wild West

The race to play-offs is heating up in both conferences, but it's the battle in the West that is grabbing the headlines.

This is because there are 3 teams, the Dallas Mavericks (47 wins-31 losses), the Phoenix Suns (46-31) and the Memphis Grizzlies (45-32), competing for 2 spots left in the post-season.

To add to this already close fight, all three teams still have to play each other. The Mavs are home to the Suns before travelling out to Memphis to face the Grizzlies in the last fixture of the season. Memphis and Phoenix meet in Phoenix for the penultimate match in the 2013-14 campaign.

The Mavs have one less game left, with matches against the Jazz and the Spurs to add to the games named above. The Suns also have to face the Spurs with winnable games against the Kings and the Pelicans filling out their schedule. The Grizzlies also have two "easy" games left, with a trip to Philadelphia preceding a visit from the Lakers. They also have to face the Eastern Conference topping Miami Heat.

It looks like the games against the Spurs could be the key to who gets the places. With Gregg Popovich's managerial style of resting some older key players for certain games, one of their competitors could catch a lucky break. The Grizzlies couldn't, as their 20 point defeat at the hands of the Spurs last night proved.

As the other fixtures go, it looks pretty clear cut as to who will win. However, the Suns beat the Thunder last night, so it is feasible that a similar upset could happen in the Grizzlies-Heat match-up, especially with Miami's stuttering form. Also, they could be saving stars like LeBron James and Dwayne Wade for the play-offs.

If Grizzlies are tied with any of the teams when the season's done, they will be guaranteed a play-off spot, as they are 3-0 against both the Mavericks and the Suns. If the Mavs and Suns tie, whoever wins the last remaining fixture between the sides will make the play-offs.

Dirk Nowitzki, Goran Dragic and Zach Randolph have all been pivotal to their team's play-offs chances this year.

Looking at the fixtures still to be played, here are my predicted records.

7 - Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
8 - Phoenix Suns (49-31)
9 - Memphis Grizzlies (48-34)

I made quite a bold prediction, saying that the Suns would beat the Spurs. I said this because the Spurs have to play their rivals Rockets after this game. This means they may rest some stars such as Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan, in the hope that they can defeat Houston. Despite making my play-offs, I have the Suns down as losing both crunch matches. But due to the Grizzlies losing to both the Mavs and the Heat, they miss the cut.

With all these uncertainties, it's almost impossible to guess who will make the post-season out West. But one thing is for sure. Fans around the world will be thrilled by this race to the playoffs.


Out East, the play-off battle is much less entertaining, but still worth writing about. There are two teams in the running, the Atlanta Hawks and the New York Knicks. The Cleveland Cavaliers have a mathematical chance, but it's about as slight as the chances of Anthony Bennett winning Rookie of the Year. The Knicks are two games back with two games in hand over the Hawks. It seems that New York blew their best chance to catch Atlanta last night when they lost to the Heat (not helped by J.R. Smith's 22 3-point attempts). This loss was made worse by the fact that the Hawks defeated a poor Pacers team on the same night.

The Knicks have the harder schedule, having to play 4 teams already in the play-offs (Nets, Raptors twice and the Bulls) whereas the Hawks have to play "easier" sides with games against the Pistons, Celtics and the Bucks. It's hard to see a way for the Knicks to make their way into play-offs, a sentence that shouldn't be said when you look at their roster for this year.

Have Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks left it too late to make a playoff run? On the other hand, Paul Millsap and the Hawks look like they are going to make it into their 7th consecutive post-season.